From Across the Pond

Personal opinion on Kosovo's independence

I suspect like many people of around my own age the wars in the former Yugoslavia formed the major foreign affairs backdrop during the period of my life when I became aware of international politics, along with the end of the Cold War and the first Gulf War. Back in the mid-90s it was quite plain in my mind that, although crimes were committed by all sides in the Croatian and Bosnian wars, the chief culprit and worst offender were Serbs, both within Croatia and Bosnia, and without in the guise of Slobodan Milosevic and Serbia. Thus, when the conflict in Kosovo rose to the fore in 1999 there was no doubt that the Serbs were the 'bad guys'.

Following the overthrow of Milosevic in 2000 I developed a very detailed interest in affairs in the region, and became very knnowledgeable in what was going on - I followed the conflict in the Presevo valley and in Macedonia very closely, and the politics surrounding Milosevic's arrest and later extradition to The Hague. I not only followed the news - getting English translations of some local news sites - I also read a number of books on the history behind the area. This very detailed knowledge and interest lasted until towards the end of 2002. During this time my initial opinions underwent considerable refinement and revision.

Apart from anything else I came to regard the actions of the Kosovars following the NATO bombing to demonstrate that they were morally no better than their Serb opponents. Also it was fairly clear to me at the time that the UN and NATO had drafted its resolutions specifically to deny the chance of independence. Instead of working to create a situation where Kosovo would be an autonomous part of Serbia, I had the impression this entire issue was largely ignored for several years. Likewise I came to view the War Crimes Tribunal at The Hague and the pursuit of war criminals to be very unhelpful.

Mostly I started to develop a sense that, no matter what horrors they inflict on other peoples, those worst affected by a dictator are almost invariably their own people. For all the misery and suffering Milosevic has brought to Croatians, Bosniaks, and Kosovars, the group that has suffered most and longest are his own Serbs. I see the independence of Kosovo as the latest result and wound inflicted by Milosevic on his own people.

Despite that I am a subscriber to the idea of self-determination. For that reason I support Kosovan independence, even if I am not enthusiastic about it. The lack of enthusiasm is caused by the ham-fisted way the West has dealt with the region. The Great Powers have a very poor record at bringing lasting peace to the Balkans, and I would not be surprised if our latest interventions do not end up being just as fallible as our previous ones. 

As an aside, my belief in self-determination means that I would support the creation of an independent Basque-land or Catalonia, or an independent Scotland, should the majority of the people within those regions with it. Equally, should the Serbian-dominated north-west of Kosovo now wish to secede from this nascent state I would support their right to do so as well. I think trying to pretend that Kosovo does not set a precedent is both unjust and frankly stupid. But we shall see what happens.

Some interesting Kosovo links

Just a couple of links I have found interesting today on the issue of Kosovo's independence.

Firstly, Stephen Bainbridge has this post on Russia's possible reactions to Kosovo.

Secondly, via Stephen Bainbridge, there is this page of posts by Anthony Arend.

Good reading.

Two consequences of Kosovo's independence

Now that a couple of days has passed since Kosovo's indepdence, the likely consequences are becoming apparent. At a meeting of the European Union foreign ministers it was agreed that Kosovo does not set a precedent. To that I have one thing to say: baloney. If it does not set a precedent then the Spain would have no problem recognising this new state, but they have refused to for good reason. If Spain recognises the right of a part of a nation to unilaterally declare its independence it loses all rights to its claims over Gibralter, not to mention its position over the question of the Basques and Catalans is considerably weakened. So Spain refuses, and will try to use this pronoucement from the EU as political cover.

I do not expect the Basques to become independent any time soon, but Spain is well aware that Kosovo's independence strengths the cause of separatism everywhere. It is a consequence that the United States and the United Kingdom have not been willing to address, and I believe it will become the greatest consequence from this decision. This BBC article states the situation quite well.

However, this will I think be a longer term affair, in the short term it is now the latest point of disagreement between Russia and the West. It is deeply unfashionable to talk to a renewed Cold War, but consider this - the first Cold War was initiated in disagreements over nation states in the wake of world war 2. There are more than a few similarities between now and then, and it does no good to blind ourselves to the possibility.

Thoughts on Kosovo's place in history

Yesterday, Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia. There was quite a good opinion piece in The Times today about it, which put this into something of a long-term historical perspective. On the whole though most of the commentary I have read only skirts over what led us to where we are, mostly just concentrating on the break-up of Yugoslavia. Considering how short most peoples memories are I suppose I should be happy that most of the commentary is able to go back 15-20 years, but in my opinion that is an all too short timeframe.

The independence of Kosovo is the latest echo in the collapse of the two Empires that dominated the Balkans from the 15th century to the early 20th century - namely the Ottoman Emire and the Empire of Austria (later Austro-Hungary), a process which began in the early nineteenth century when Serbia and Greece first broke away from the Ottoman Empire, became earnest after Ottoman defeat in the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-8 and the following Congress of Berlin, and went into overdrive following the defeat of both Empires in the first world war. The two multi-national states that were born from the aftermath of that war, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, have now totally broken apart.

It is also a further sign of the decentralisation of Europe. One of the great historical movements of European history from the Middle Ages to the start of the twentieth century was the centralisation of power in fewer and fewer nations, as countries expanded over their geographical areas. Thus out of Castille and Aragon came Spain, England absorbed Scotland and Ireland, Germany and Italy unified under the strongest states, Poland was partitioned, and all in all everything become superficially more orderly. But even as the last great achievements of this period of centralisation were occurring (in Italy and Germany) there were signs that the same nationalism that led to those unifications were already beginning to tear other nations apart. Austria had become Austro-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire had already lost control of Greece and Serbia, and more was to follow. The fall of the Russian Empire saw a brief independence of many of its parts, an independence supressed by a resurgent communist Russia, and then renewed again after communism collapsed. But even outside of this, Norway separated from Sweden, devolved governments now exist in parts of Spain and Britain, and Belgium as an idea is under tremendous strain from the competing needs of its two constituent parts.

This breaking down of nations is unlikely to stop in the near future. Indeed, the break away of Kosovo is likely to provide further impetus for it, as it does create a precedent. But that is a discussion for another day .